Tejashwi Yadav and Nitish Raj elections in Bihar

In the exit poll, RJD is emerging as the single largest party with 94 to 106 seats. At the same time, among its allies in the alliance, Congress is expected to get 29 to 35 seats, CPI (ML) 12-16 and CPI and CPM two each.

Exit poll predicts grand alliance

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar announced amid the campaign in the state that the 2020 assembly election is the last election of his political career. 

After three consecutive terms Nitish Kumar is seen to be out of power, according to estimates from India-Today-Axis My India exit poll. 

The young Tejashwi Yadav is seen sweeping Bihar elections on the basis of full support of unemployed youth. 

The problem faced by the migrant laborers in the lockdown along with the problem of unemployment and the attitude shown by Nitish government on it also prepared the way for Tejashwi to come to power.

According to the exit poll, the alliance led by Tejashwi is seen getting 139 to 161 seats in the 243-member assembly. At the same time, the ruling NDA may have to satisfy only 69 to 91 seats. Talking about vote share, the grand alliance is expected to get 44 percent and NDA 39 percent.

If we talk about the parties, then RJD seems to be emerging as the largest party with 94 to 106 seats. 

At the same time, among its allies in the alliance, Congress is expected to get 29 to 35 seats, CPI (ML) 12-16 and CPI and CPM two each. 

At the same time, JDU is expected to get 26 to 34 seats in NDA. In NDA, BJP can get more than 38-50 seats from JDU.

According to the exit poll, the NDA partner at the Center and the LJP, which contested alone in Bihar, is expected to win 3 to 5 seats. LJP founder late Ram Vilas Paswan continued to target Nitish Kumar during the entire campaign of this assembly election.

Please tell that Nitish Kumar's party JDU fought the 2015 assembly elections together with RJD and Congress and the Grand Alliance won 178 seats. 

At that time there were LJP, RLSP and HAM with BJP in NDA which won a total of 58 seats. Then Nitish Kumar became the Chief Minister and Tejashwi Yadav Deputy CM. But in 2017, Nitish came out of the Grand Alliance and then joined hands with the NDA and became the Chief Minister. Now Nitish joined BJP's Sushil Kumar Modi as deputy CM.

JDU's prospects were lost in several seats due to the separation of LJP in the 2020 assembly elections. Paswan sub-caste votes were divided into NDA (31%) and LJP (30%), for example. Paswan's party also broke into Mahadalits and economically backward votes. The LJP received eight to eight percent of the votes from both these sections.

Rise of stunning on economic issues

On Monday itself, 31-year-old Tejashwi Yadav was liked by 44 per cent of the contestants as Chief Minister. At the same time, 35 percent of the voters liked giving another term to Nitish. LJP leader Chirag Paswan was described by 7 per cent of the voters as his choice.

If the stunning CM becomes the youngest Chief Minister of the country in the last 53 years. Earlier in 1967, M O Hasan Farooq became the CM at the age of 29 in Puducherry. 

If you become a stunning CM, a record and the name of the Lalu family will be added. He is to become three chief ministers from two generations of a family. 

Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi have previously been chief ministers. Till now, three Chief Ministers from the Abdullah family in Jammu and Kashmir became but they belonged to three generations.

Not only did Tejaswi's youth appeal prepare the basis of victory for him, but Nitish government's failures on the economic front also seem to have made his way easier. 25 per cent of exit poll participants accused the Nitish Kumar government of ignoring development. At the same time, 21 percent expressed their opinion in favor of change. Only 12 per cent preferred to vote for Tejashwi because of his young face.

Which issues are important?

According to 42% of the voters in Bihar, the highest development issue influenced their decision to vote. Unemployment was the second factor. Which influenced the decision of 30% voters to vote. According to the exit poll, 11% of the voters voted inflation as the most important issue for voting and NDA supporters who want to keep the NDA in power.

Surprisingly, in the exit poll, people did not consider road, water and power projects as an issue in Nitish Kumar's last 15 years of governance. According to the exit poll, 43 percent of the NDA's supporters want to see NDA not because of Nitish Kumar but because of the performance of the central government in power.

Sushant Singh Rajput's death did not become an issue

The attempt to politicize the death of Bihar-born Bollywood actor Sushant Singh Rajput did not succeed, as 77 per cent of voters did not consider it an issue for the state.

Caste, age and gender patterns

Among the Scheduled Castes (SCs), the NDA is expected to get 41 per cent of the vote. At the same time, 35 percent of the participants from this class relied on the grand alliance. 

The NDA is expected to get the support of 57 percent voters from the OBC and EBC. This is twice the support the Mahagathbandhan got from these sections.

But the Muslim-Yadav-Yuva factor seems to be decisive for the victory of the Grand Alliance. Tejashwi Yadav against Nitish Kumar